Fishing predictions and forecasts
August 2020
There are many purported methods of predicting when and where fish will bite, and fishing will be most successful. These forecasts have been around for many years and some have a basis in science such as tide charts, moon phases, etc. Whether these can help you catch more fish is debatable. If they supply fun and confidence for the angler that is certainly a positive and adds to the lore of fishing.
Factors for Fishing Success
Location
If you are in a place of high fish concentration, you surely have a better chance of catching.
Weather
Certainly, the weather effects fishing success. Extremely hot weather will drive colder water fish such as Trout to find cooler, deeper water. Thunder and lightning drive most fish “off of the bite”.
Time of day
There seems to be a correlation that fish bite more at dawn or dusk. This could be due to lower light levels in the water or that prey are more active at these times.
Tides
It is well known that tidal waters such as Long Island Sound that fish are more active during tidal flows either in or out bound more than at slack tides.
Moon Phase (related to tides)
Barometric Pressure (related to weather)
It is typically low when a storm approaches and high when clear skies are in place. Fishing lore suggests fish bite more when a storm is approaching.
The Farmer’s Almanac
The Farmer’s Almanac has a fishing calendar is based on the phase of the moon, the zodiac sign the moon is in, and experience. Local conditions, tides, and weather may affect your fishing experience. This means it might or might not work and your mileage may vary.
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/calendar/fishing/
Solunar Tables
Solunar theory was developed in 1926 John Alden Knight and was based upon 3 factors- Tide, Moon and Sun movements.
Per the Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solunar_theory.
There have been both “scientific” and anecdotal mapping of fishing logs to Solunar peak periods and anglers have found a correlation to success. From my view if it supplies interest, fun and puts anglers on the water it is a good thing. It is impossible to catch fish from the couch.
The In-Fisherman magazine has an online Solunar calendar. You can select your target species, location and date and it will give you a forecast of expected action. Their forecast calendar can be found here In-Fisherman Best fishing times.
Fishing Apps
I had discussed fishing applications in the earlier article. From my view fishing apps such as FishBrain can provide a more reliable forecast of fishing success. FishBrain has their forecast called BiteTime which captures 30 attributes on each fish posted to develop their prediction model. BiteTime is based upon actual fish catches and while the data might not be 100% accurate, in aggregate it could be quite useful for fishing predictions.
Fishing Myths – Bananas
There is rich fishing lore of many factors relating to success and failure and Bananas are historically blamed for fishing failures. SaltStrong has an interesting article about the Banana myth fishing history, their specific experience (the boat almost sank).
https://www.saltstrong.com/articles/top-5-myths-no-bananas-board-fishing-boat/
They mention that the hazards of Bananas can be attributed to the following and attributed to historical lore.
- They attract spiders and on long ocean journeys leading to infestation
- When a boat sinks the Bananas are left floating, so they are often blamed
- Bananas can rot, stink, and cause other foods to sour
- Bananas can attract termites
- Banana scent can rub off on anglers’ hands and distract fish
- Bananas can ferment and the alcohol can cause fires
My Thoughts
From my view if you are fishing, you can catch fish. When you are on the couch, you can’t. The more time spent on the water whether at “peak” times or not, is productive fishing. If forecasts and predictions provide the angler with more confidence to spend more time on the water, they will catch more fish. I call time on the water “paying your dues” if the fishing is not productive. This can be fun and a learning experience just from being on the water regardless of the catching action.
I would be interested in hearing of fishing success attributed to one of these forecast tools. Please send any constructive feedback or suggestions. You can contact me by email [email protected].
Tight lines … Captain P.
